Gridlock in US politics has been with us for twenty-odd years now, and there is no sign that it is going away any time soon. I googled for all of 15 seconds before concluding that this issue hadn't been addressed in a way I found interesting.
The gridlock could end with a series of constitutional amendments, or a constitutional convention, but surely both parties would ensure gridlock continues in that process, and even if one side got a sizable advantage they would be unable to muster approval from the required 3/4 of the states -- the ultimate supermajority.
Another way political systems change is after defeat in a war. The prospect of the US being defeated in a war seem quite remote. Our geographic isolation on our own continent, sharing borders with only the much weaker Canada and Mexico make that highly unlikely.
One way it could end is by demographic shifts that gradually bring one party to power consistently. Democrats are the candidate. But some traditional Democratic groups have significant numbers becoming Republicans, and birth rates are falling among all demographic groups, not just white people. If Republicans do see this change coming, it lends an urgency to their efforts to achieve a sufficient corruption of the democratic process that they can retain power.
The other way gridlock could end is basically a coup d'etat. Democrats are on the whole too committed to the rule of law to initiate such a thing, but as we have seen lately, notably on January 6th, the Republicans are not. If Donald Trump is re-elected without major election fraud in 2024 (as seems likely), he is likely to continue from where he left off in terms of undermining democracy. The constitution limits him to just four more years, but he could put forth his son Donald or daughter Ivanka for President, with the understanding that Donald Senior would remain firmly in charge. His Republicans could continue to impose voter registration requirements weeding out more and more of the likely Democratic voters. He could enable Republican legislatures or governors in actually submitting alternative or fraudulent vote counts in major elections. Last time around, Mike Pence and Mitch McConnell had enough integrity that they would not overturn the results of an election, but there are other Republicans waiting in the wings, likely selected by Donald Trump by way of "primarying" away moderate Republicans, who would. Trump could subtly and not so subtly intimidate the press until it is not a free press any more. The Supreme Court, with its 6-3 majority, might not invalidate any of this. If they did, Trump might simply declare that he is not bound by decisions of that Court. Would 2/3 of the Senate convict him if he was impeached for that? Surely not.
Who is left? The US military. The officer corps is (last I knew) rather firmly anti-Trump or at least pro-Constitution, and after January 6th there were purges of white supremacist officers. But if the Trump takeover happens slowly, what would provide the impetus for the military to move? The idea of a junta ruling the US for any period of time would offend just about everybody. Suppose Trump's son Donald says he won the election of 2028, when independent observers (who may be in short supply) say he didn't, by a considerable margin. Perhaps the military could decree that the Democrat actually won and see that he is installed as President. But what about Congress, which could also well be Republican, perhaps legitimately or perhaps because of the devious changes to voter eligibility? Surely the military can't simply declare the Democrats winners in all of those elections. What about the state legislatures? Trying to fairly sort out winners and losers in all those contests would be a nightmare.
With Trump in power for 4 years or more, you can imagine him starting his own purge of the military, removing officers who are not loyal to him, or at least those show any sign of taking their oath to the Constitution as meaning something beyond being loyal to their Commander-in-Chief. So then, how does the Trump family lock on power ever end?
Democrats may take to the streets in mass demonstrations at any point, but until Trump supporters change, it will not sweep the country. I think the key lies with the moderate Trump supporters. People grow tired of their leaders, and Trump would probably put in place initiatives they didn't like. Some might realize they actually have lost the power they thought they had gained by way of Trump. They may see in tangible terms that they are worse off than they were 4 years ago. If the Trump supporters in red-state America split, a substantial minority might join with the substantial Democratic minorities in (temporary, at least) support of Democratic nominees. If they can see that their candidates for Congress actually won the majority in an election and the Trump functionaries have declared for the Republican, they might take to the streets. And if people take to the streets in large enough numbers in the heartland as well as on the coasts, that is when the government might fall. I tend to think that the US military is unlikely to slaughter their countrymen in large numbers.
The US Constitution is so venerable that the pressure to keep that form of government might be intense, but if post-Trump majorities are large enough, they could put through amendments that could help solve the problem. They could vest all power in a majority in the House of Representatives -- the way a great many other democracies in the world work. They could do this by reducing the Senate to a ceremonial body, and giving the House the power to remove the President by a simple majority vote. They could seriously limit the power of the Supreme Court. Then we could have largely solved the problem of gridlock, and restored a working democracy to the US.
If the Trump operatives are sneaky enough, they might keep their fingers on the pulse of the people and do enough to placate moderate Trump voters so that this scenario would not play out. If the Trump forces gave only limited resistance to popular pressure, then the result of a reversal might be Democratic control -- for a while -- within the current Constitutional system, leading to further gridlock. It would be only the removal of a government very widely perceived to be illegitimate that could give the huge supermajorities needed for constitutional amendments.
I feel like I have just pained a very unlikely scenario. A series of steps have to happen, and you could argue that many of them are unlikely, and the entire sequence especially so.
What is the alternative? A government that proceeds by inertia, keeping pretty much the same policies as it has now. There will be no major new initiatives. We will keep funding a huge and largely useless military. No infrastructure repair. China will dominate the world stage, offset to some extent by Germany and other key European Union members. The US will get poorer and shabbier. The Republican heartland is already getting poor and shabby, and it will spread to the areas that are now fairly prosperous and well-maintained. But the rich will keep getting richer.
That's how I see the political future in the US. Any alternative ideas for how things might go?
