Suppose you're a liberal Democrat (like
me) who would clearly prefer Warren or Sanders to Joe Biden as
President. But you want to make sure a Democrat wins.
So the main dilemma for the Democratic
primary voters is: Do you want a very liberal candidate who can fire
up the base (think Elizabeth Warren) or do you want a
middle-of-the-road comfortable candidate (think Joe Biden)?
Below is exactly the sort of
information that plays into that calculus:
In case that story is behind a paywall
for you, I put the basic facts at the end of this post.
You ask voters in the swing states how
they would vote given head-to-head matchups of Trump vs Biden and
Trump vs Warren.
The fact that the polls are so close is
actually very disheartening. It means that an awful lot of people
don't really understand or care that our entire system of
constitutional government is under attack. But I guess we knew that.
But the polls suggest that Biden would
beat Trump, Sanders would beat Trump but not by so much, but Trump
would beat Warren. The 7 percent or so of people who aren't already
strongly committed Republicans on the one hand or Democrats on the
other don't like Warren but are open to Biden.
Now, of course this is just one poll,
subject to its own biases. It is taken a year before the election. It
doesn't say anything about turnout. But it is the basic sort of
reason to prefer Biden to Warren.
But overall turnout is not what's
important. I fear that if lots and lots of people in blue states are
inspired by Warren and come out in huge numbers on election day --
that makes no difference. What crucially matters is who comes out to
vote in the swing states. Warren might fire up the Democratic base
there, but opposition to her might fire up the Republican base.
It is very frustrating to liberals to
see how conservative the country has been running, especially as they
(liberals) are in the majority. It's tempting to see Warren (or
Sanders) as a liberal breath of fresh air -- finally lots of good
ideas. Get money out of politics, make taxation progressive again,
lots of liberal programs, etc. She has the programs I like. If I knew
she would be elected and be a dictator until the next election, I
would be all in favor. I like her better in just about every way. But
the truth is a great deal of her program won't get implemented even
if the Democrats win the Senate. If they don't, very little indeed
will get implemented -- it would be just what can be done with
executive orders. And then, a possibility of enormous weight: if she
doesn't win, it doesn't matter how great her program is.
So I am reminded of the part in
"Fiddler on the Roof" where the Jewish residents of the
village are being forced to leave
(https://www.quotes.net/mquote/31618):
A villager asks, "Rabbi, we've
been waiting for the Messiah all our lives. Wouldn't now be a good
time for him to come?". And the rabbi replies: "I guess
we'll have to wait someplace else."
It's high time for liberals to hold the
reins of power, but it can't be done yet. It will take patience.
Winning the Presidency is a way to stem the tide of assault on the
constitutional system. That is more important than anything else. So
I will have my eyes firmly on polls that address the exact question
these polls asked, and expect my vote to be governed by what they say
when it's time for me to vote.
--------------------------------
How Trump fares among registered
voters. [The three numbers under each state are who wins against
Biden (first line), Sanders (second line) or Warren (third line).]
Trump vs. Biden, Sanders, and Warren
Michigan (n=501)
Even
Sanders +2
Trump +6
Pennsylvania (661)
Biden +3
Sanders +1
Even
Wisconsin (651)
Biden +3
Sanders +2
Even
Florida (650)
Biden +2
Trump +1
Trump +4
Arizona (652)
Biden +5
Trump +1
Warren +2
North Carolina (651)
Trump +2
Trump +3
Trump +3
Based on a New York Times/Siena College
poll of 3,766 registered voters from Oct. 13 to Oct. 26.
