Monday, November 4, 2019

Vital: Swing-state head-to-head polls


Suppose you're a liberal Democrat (like me) who would clearly prefer Warren or Sanders to Joe Biden as President. But you want to make sure a Democrat wins.

So the main dilemma for the Democratic primary voters is: Do you want a very liberal candidate who can fire up the base (think Elizabeth Warren) or do you want a middle-of-the-road comfortable candidate (think Joe Biden)?

Below is exactly the sort of information that plays into that calculus:


In case that story is behind a paywall for you, I put the basic facts at the end of this post.

You ask voters in the swing states how they would vote given head-to-head matchups of Trump vs Biden and Trump vs Warren.

The fact that the polls are so close is actually very disheartening. It means that an awful lot of people don't really understand or care that our entire system of constitutional government is under attack. But I guess we knew that.

But the polls suggest that Biden would beat Trump, Sanders would beat Trump but not by so much, but Trump would beat Warren. The 7 percent or so of people who aren't already strongly committed Republicans on the one hand or Democrats on the other don't like Warren but are open to Biden.

Now, of course this is just one poll, subject to its own biases. It is taken a year before the election. It doesn't say anything about turnout. But it is the basic sort of reason to prefer Biden to Warren.

But overall turnout is not what's important. I fear that if lots and lots of people in blue states are inspired by Warren and come out in huge numbers on election day -- that makes no difference. What crucially matters is who comes out to vote in the swing states. Warren might fire up the Democratic base there, but opposition to her might fire up the Republican base.

It is very frustrating to liberals to see how conservative the country has been running, especially as they (liberals) are in the majority. It's tempting to see Warren (or Sanders) as a liberal breath of fresh air -- finally lots of good ideas. Get money out of politics, make taxation progressive again, lots of liberal programs, etc. She has the programs I like. If I knew she would be elected and be a dictator until the next election, I would be all in favor. I like her better in just about every way. But the truth is a great deal of her program won't get implemented even if the Democrats win the Senate. If they don't, very little indeed will get implemented -- it would be just what can be done with executive orders. And then, a possibility of enormous weight: if she doesn't win, it doesn't matter how great her program is.

So I am reminded of the part in "Fiddler on the Roof" where the Jewish residents of the village are being forced to leave (https://www.quotes.net/mquote/31618):

A villager asks, "Rabbi, we've been waiting for the Messiah all our lives. Wouldn't now be a good time for him to come?". And the rabbi replies: "I guess we'll have to wait someplace else."

It's high time for liberals to hold the reins of power, but it can't be done yet. It will take patience. Winning the Presidency is a way to stem the tide of assault on the constitutional system. That is more important than anything else. So I will have my eyes firmly on polls that address the exact question these polls asked, and expect my vote to be governed by what they say when it's time for me to vote.

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How Trump fares among registered voters. [The three numbers under each state are who wins against Biden (first line), Sanders (second line) or Warren (third line).]

Trump vs. Biden, Sanders, and Warren

Michigan (n=501)
Even
Sanders +2
Trump +6

Pennsylvania (661)
Biden +3
Sanders +1
Even

Wisconsin (651)
Biden +3
Sanders +2
Even

Florida (650)
Biden +2
Trump +1
Trump +4

Arizona (652)
Biden +5
Trump +1
Warren +2

North Carolina (651)
Trump +2
Trump +3
Trump +3

Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 3,766 registered voters from Oct. 13 to Oct. 26.

1 comment:

Kevin M said...

This is why I am not a fan of Warren. I think she would make a fine president, but I believe the all payer health care policy is not going to win her the swing states. She is not going to sell the idea that this will not be some cost to the middle class. Also the all payer system will take away people's private health care, and although they may not love their care, they will not be willing to turn it over to the government.

The policies of Mayor Pete and Amy are much better sells in the swing states. But I am not sure they can win the primary.