Lee Hays, a singer with the Weavers, was in ill health in the early 1980s. A concert was held in his honor, at a time when Reaganism challenged a liberal consensus that had held for nearly 50 years. It was disheartening to the left. At the concert he said, "This too will pass". It did, for a while. When it did, we got the conservative Democrat Bill Clinton. But then George W. Bush was elected. Truth was on its way out. He was the worst President there had ever been in so many ways. That too passed, and we got Barack Obama, a man of great integrity whose biggest flaw was that he was too nice. Then Donald Trump, a figure so destructive of the foundations of American democracy that he made George W. Bush look positively wonderful in comparison.
This too has passed -- at least for the moment. Democrats gained control of Presidency and Senate, while retaining control of the House! But scratch the surface and things do not look so good. 47% of voters were sufficiently unperturbed by Donald Trump's assault on democracy to vote for him for a second term. Joe Biden got 51%. But the Democratic House majority shrank to just 4 seats, and the Senate majority relies on the single tie-breaking vote of the Vice President. Still, there is the potential to pass some major things. Maybe Americans will see how great a reasonable level of government spending can be and reconsider Democrats more positively. A big stimulus package passed, but now an infrastructure bill is in trouble, as a single dissenting Democratic vote will kill it. The ground is ripe for any Democrat to insist on their one pet issue, for many to follow the few, and for the entire thing to fail.
What's more, if two-thirds of Republicans still think the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump, will they or the other third have any prospect of seeing accurately the benefits of a bill and ascribing them to the party that passed the bill?
Democrats also have some explosive issues that threaten their unity. "Woke" culture is intensely unpopular among much of the population, including swing voters. (The "cancel culture" part is intensely unpopular across a wider range, including me). Disavowing woke culture would make a key part of the Democratic base stay home. One specific version now plays out now with regard to Israel and Palestine, where the "woke" viewpoint is assertively pro-Palestinian, and a great many moderate American Jews will not be pleased. We still have issues over how much of a human rights travesty it is that a few trans people might be forced to use the "other" bathroom. All these issues pose a serious threat to the fragile majority the Democrats put together. 2022 threatens to be the year that Senate and House split decisively for the Republicans, and Biden sits in the White House for two more years, unable to do anything. If a Republican Senate blocks a Biden Supreme Court nominee, we could face the prospect of the 6-3 conservative majority of the court (after being 6-2 for a while) becoming 7-2 in the early months of 2025. The prospect of solid Republican control of the government in early 2025 seems very likely indeed. Then they can simply repeal anything good that Biden and the Democrats do manage to pass in the next two years.
In my <previous post> I argued for moderation on the issue of racial justice. I expect many liberals will disagree with me strenuously -- and their opposition is part of what will likely seal a long-term Republican majority.
I wish I could see one consideration that suggests any gains for Democrats.
Others have noted that Trump might have been aiming to be an anti-democratic strong man, but was hampered by a great many imperfections unrelated to that quest (blatant self-enrichment, gratuitous insults, etc.) The new president in 2025 might just be a Republican, but he might also be a potential strong man without all the Trump disadvantages (or he might be Trump himself -- groan).
So what's going to happen? The US will shrink from international commitments, leaving world leadership to China. The rich will get richer. The poor will get poorer. We will barrel on into climate catastrophe. More and more Blacks will be disenfranchised. Cruelty to immigrants will increase. Spending on infrastructure will shrink to the point where the US becomes just another country in decline, if not exactly a Third World Country. Will Republicans somehow package the repeal of Social Security, Medicare, and the rest of the social safety net as a good thing, ridding us of evil that the Democrats foisted upon us? Will it become perilous to criticize the government?
"This too will pass." I suppose that once this Republican majority settles in there will emerge fissures and dissatisfactions. Even if we cannot see them now, they will emerge, but the readjustments they cause may well not rise to the level of creating anything resembling the bare bones of a just and democratic society I would like to see.
I would like to believe that in the long run things will get better, but it is hard these days. Very hard.
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