The Big, Big Picture

Maybe my upcoming 50th high school reunion inspires me to step back (not for the first time) and look at the big picture of the world as I see it. Yes, (a) the world is an interesting place, (b) there is no inherent meaning or right or wrong, only the essentially arbitrary things we choose, and (c) we're all going to die. But those will never change. As for the more newsworthy:

1. Climate change and mass species extinction are mostly unavoidable, and will have consequences lasting millions of years. But there still may be significant differences between the worst case and better cases, so working for lower emissions is worthwhile. I find it psychologically hard to connect with an issue that honesty requires us to frame as, "We've already lost, but let's work very, very hard so we don't lose quite so badly!" but logically that seems best to me. The prospect of getting large portions of the earth's people to take this issue seriously seems quite dim.

2. American democracy is under serious attack. Revelations from the January 6 hearings make clear how hard Trump tried, after one term in office, to stay in power after losing the vote. If he is elected in 2024, we are in much graver danger. The Constitution prohibits him from seeking a third term, but he could put forth Donald Trump Junior in 2028, making it clear that the latter will rule in name only, as long as Trump Senior lives. His control over the Republican Party will only become stronger. If his supporters shrug at the idea of blatant and repeated lies, that is most worrisome. If state legislatures controlled by Republicans can be convinced to certify a slate of Republican electors even if the people of the state's people voted Democratic, that's a huge blow to democracy. (What about falsely blocking certification of the election of Democratic state legislators, if people are so uppity as to elect them?)

With a 6-3 Supreme Court majority, and the "rotten boroughs" of the US Senate structurally favoring Republicans, the Presidency is in the short term the key office. I am adamant that every person who disagrees with Joe Biden and agrees with Donald Trump on every policy issue of the day must nonetheless vote for Joe Biden. That is if they value democracy, and that is more important than anything else. If there is no functioning democracy, and Donald Trump Jr. does something that is unpopular with a large majority of the people, there is no way to get rid of him. I don't see how people with the most rudimentary knowledge of history can miss that crucial point. One unpopular decision can be followed by a series of others, leading to a government more and more out of line with the will of the people.

Disenfranchising voters that tend to vote against the preferences of local government officials is also a serious problem. Primarily we think of disenfranching black voters, but it is not limited to that. That effort pre-dates Trump.

3. Everything else in my mind fits into a miscellaneous category.

Russian aggression in Ukraine is terrible, though it seems the country will survive, and steps are in place to deter any such attacks in the future. But I wonder about credibility of deterrents. If Russia attacks the NATO member Latvia with conventional forces and seems poised to win, just what is NATO going to do? Use nuclear weapons? Seems unlikely. Would Russia try to call NATO's bluff? Perhaps NATO can defend Latvia with conventional forces.

The Left has committed itself to the idea that the US was founded on slavery and displacement (or worse) of Native Americans, and is thus rotten to the core. White Americans should recognize that they have White Privilege, and while technically they are not instructed to feel guilty about that, in practice that's what happens if they take it seriously. This view might be true in some sense, but it is just not a workable position. A more reasonable approach is to recognize serious problems in our past, but to recognize that all modern nations have huge problems in their past, and the best ones struggle to be the best nations they can be now. It's also a political disaster of the highest order. The policy prescription for white voters who are struggling? Recognize that you are guilty and unduly privileged, and deserve less than Those Other People. I can't think of a better way to get people to vote Republican even if it means giving up democracy.

Sexual minorities, blacks, women -- the pendulum is swinging far to the right, and they will suffer. Overturning Roe v Wade is recent and looms large.

Fundamental to my view is that the government has to engage in a certain amount of income redistribution. The economy, following its own internal logic, has evolved to a place where a few highly skilled workers earn a great deal, and lesser skilled workers who work just as hard have trouble maintaining a decent lifestyle. It's the government's job to ease that... take more from the rich (but also leaving them plenty) to support the poor. This view is not popular with Republicans these days, and thus even the elements of it that we have (like Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security) are under attack.

Covid is with us, and a worse virus might be on the way. Lack of trust in government on this issue is a serious problem. More competent and efficient government agencies would also be great.

I am not going to try to make an exhaustive list of all the big issues in the world today. Those are the ones that came to me while writing this on a hot Sunday afternoon in June. But that's the end of category 3, "Miscellaneous".

Impressionistically, in the background of our modern commerce I see a gigantic container ship on the high seas, its engines spewing a huge blast of carbon dioxide into the air with every nautical mile they travel. That's the climate price of just about everything we do.

And democracy... remember democracy? "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others," said Churchill. I fear we're going to be reminded of just why he said that.